With Melbourne Victory’s relegation – 3 wins, 1 draw, 17 defeats (4 points, -28 goal difference) – all but confirmed following a points deduction, there are five clubs still mathematically most likely to face the other automatic relegation spot, and 12th placed relegation playoff position in the top tier. There are five games and 15 points on offer in NPL, and 12th position is not necessarily a great scenario, given the long break between fixtures for NPL and NPL2 in the lead up to the promotion/relegation playoff spot between the two.
That means there are seven matches and 21 points on offer left in NPL2, with the top team each in East and West going automatically through, while second-placed sides each face off for the chance to battle the 12th placed NPL side for a shot in the top.
NPL
Avondale: 9th
Record: 6-4-11 (22 points, -15 goal difference)
To play: Port Melb (H) South Melb (A) Bulleen (H) Melb Knights (H) Richmond (A)
Verdict: Enough games against teams around them, and just the one against finals opposition, which should mean enough points in the bag and picked up along the way for survival – the club also has plenty of game winning players at its disposal.
Port Melbourne: 10th
Record: 6-3-12 (21, -8)
To play: Avondale (A) Bulleen (H) Richmond (A) Hume City (H) Bentleigh (A)
Verdict: A must that Port picks up points in its next three fixtures, otherwise their survival hopes come down to the last two weeks against Hume and Bentleigh, which is no easy task. Best goal difference of the bunch helps, however.
Bulleen Lions: 11th
Record: 4-8-9 (20, -11)
To play: Northcote (H) Port Melb (A) Avondale (A) Richmond (H) Hume City (A)
Verdict: With four games against teams around them, there are plenty of six-pointer opportunities to propel themselves away from the drop zone, which should be achieved based on their ability to grind out results.
Northcote City: 12th
Record: 4-4-13 (16, -26)
To play: Bulleen (A) Richmond (H) Hume City (A) Bentleigh (H) Oakleigh (A)
Verdict: The fast-finishing enigma that is Northcote is on a late-season roll, but points need to be taken in the next two weeks, otherwise they’ll have to do it against finals-bound opposition for the last three weeks – on paper perhaps the toughest run. They still have goal difference to make up as well, though.
Richmond: 13th
Record: 3-6-12 (15, -23)
To play: Heidelberg (H) Northcote (A) Port Melb (H) Bulleen (A) Avondale (H)
Verdict: Get through a tough fixture against Heidelberg and there’ll be four straight fixtures against bottom-half opposition to make the equation interesting. Drawing games isn’t much help at this point, either.
***
NPL 2 East
Dandenong Thunder: 1st
Record: 18-2-1 (53, 55)
To play: Goulburn Valley Suns (H) Brunswick City (A) Bendigo City (H) Werribee City (A) Kingston City (H) Eastern Lions (H) Springvale White Eagles (H)
Verdict: Any other season and Thunder would have been miles in front, having only lost once. The points deduction could take a toll when they play Kingston again, however one would expect the club to navigate through its run home to remain first and jump back straight into the top flight.
Kingston City: 2nd
Record: 16-2-3 (50, 28)
To play: Dandenong City (A) Murray United (H) Sunshine (A) St. Albans Saints (H) Dandenong Thunder (A) Goulburn Valley Suns (H) Brunswick City (A)
Verdict: Likewise, any other season and Kingston’s record would also have been enough to sit first (especially when you consider Whittlesea have drawn six and lost three to sit top of West). What makes their run more difficult than Thunder’s is having to play both Dandenongs away, while also facing St Albans, and even a plucky Sunshine away now seems a potentially tough prospect given the latter’s form.
Dandenong City: 3rd
Record: 11-4-6 (37, 22)
To play: Kingston City FC (H) Eastern Lions SC (A) Moreland City FC (A) Melbourne City (H) Springvale White Eagles (H) Nunawading City FC (A) Box Hill United SC (H)
Verdict: A couple of unknowns in having to face Moreland City away plus the Kingston and Melbourne City games. In any case, they’d be relying more on Kingston or Thunder failing spectacularly than their own form going forward to lead to a sniff of promotion, given they need to catch up 13 points.
There are still the likes of Box Hill United – 10-4-7 (34, 10) – Brunswick City – 8-8-5 (32, 5) – and Goulburn Valley Suns –10-2-9 (32, 3) – mathematically able to be promoted, but realistically too far away at this point.
***
NPL2 West
Whittlesea Ranges: 1st
Record: 12-6-3 (42, 18)
To play: Moreland City (A) North Geelong Warriors (H) Brunswick City (H) Murray United (H) Moreland Zebras (A) Ballarat Red Devils (H) St Albans (A)
Verdict: While not many would have picked them to sit four points clear with seven rounds to go, here Whittlesea are. Two away trips to both Morelands may be tricky, but a home run of three including Brunswick and Murray may be some respite. It could all come to a head, however, away at St Albans. A four point lead and best goal difference of the top four however has them in pole position to go up.
St Albans Saints: 2nd
Record: 11-5-5 (38, 14)
To play: Werribee City (H) Melbourne City (A) Goulburn Valley Suns (H) Kingston City (A) Sunshine George Cross (H) Bendigo City (H) Whittlesea Ranges (H)
Verdict: A great run post mid-season has the in-form Saint Albans in a good position to push for promotion. Their run is fairly reasonable too. Clashes against Melbourne City and Kingston City, plus the final blockbuster against Whittlesea, are balanced out by fixtures at home to the league’s bottom three in Werribee, Sunshine and Bendigo.
Moreland Zebras: 3rd
Record: 11-2-8 (35, 11)
To play: Sunshine George Cross (H) Bendigo City (A) Eastern Lions (H) Goulburn Valley Suns (A) Whittlesea Ranges (H) North Geelong Warriors (H) Moreland City (A)
Verdict: Zebras are still in with a sniff, three points behind St Albans and seven behind Whittlesea. In the Zebras’ favour is that they only play two fellow promotion chasers in Whittlesea and North Geelong. Will have to make up the lowest goal difference of the contenders, however. With two draws all season, the Zebras may remain a rollercoaster side to the end.
North Geelong Warriors: 4th
Record: 9-7-5 (34, 12)
To play: Bendigo City (H) Whittlesea Ranges (A) Springvale White Eagles (A) Box Hill United (A) Moreland City (H) Moreland Zebras (H) Ballarat Red Devils (A)
Verdict: Seven draws indicate that North Geelong would be ruing not converting numerous one-pointers into three this season, and they certainly won’t have it easy. An away run of Whittlesea, Springvale and Box Hill will be a big test, as will a final day trip to Ballarat.
Melbourne City: 5th
Record: 10-3-8 (33, 22)
To play: Ballarat Red Devils (A) St Albans Saints (H) Box Hill United (H) Dandenong City (A) Werribee City (A) Moreland City (A) Sunshine George Cross (H)
Verdict: Sitting in fifth but still just five points behind second, although they were leading not too long ago. St Albans and Dandenong City will be the tough tests, but certainly no games stand out as automatic three-pointers despite their favouritism in most. Another team to draw few games, their inconsistency means their remaining fixtures are hard to predict.
Ballarat Red Devils – 8-4-9 (28, -4) – and Moreland City – 8-3-10 (27,-2) – are also there or thereabouts, with the Red Devils 10 points behind second with 21 points on offer. While it seems plausible, if they do catch up on one team, there’ll be many others still picking up points around them, so the equation isn’t that simple, and to us seems just a bit out of reach.