Photo: Smile for Peter
With just three weeks left in the season proper, the race for the NPL Victoria title, finals and relegation are approaching a loggerheads. Bentleigh can secure the title this weekend with a win, while Richmond SC and Northcote City still hold hopes of escaping relegation. However it looks highly likely that the pair are fighting out to avoid an automatic drop to NPL2, to join Melbourne Victory in the state’s second tier.
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NPL Premiership
The Bentleigh Greens hold a commanding position at the top of the NPL table with 55 points and an impressive +37 goal difference. They currently sit seven points clear of Heidelberg meaning they need just two points to secure top spot. That means any win over Heidelberg, Port Melbourne or Northcote would make it happen. The worst case scenario is they lose two of those matches, draw one and win it on goal difference. It is an impressive position to be in with the ability to rest players given their upcoming Dockerty Cup final and trip to Adelaide for the FFA Cup match. They face second placed Heideberg next week at home and can wrap it all up in front of their own fans at Kingston Heath.
Heidelberg United performed well at home to defeat fifth placed Hume City on Sunday to give themselves the best chance at the Premiership. They leapt in second place on the ladder over South Melbourne who fell at the hands on Avondale and sit seven points and seven goals behind Bentleigh. They need to travel to Kingston Heath and record a healthy victory to stay in with a chance, then defeat Oakleigh Cannons and Melbourne Victory whilst also requiring Bentleigh to lose their last two matches, or lose one and draw one to possibly take first on goal difference if they can close the seven goal gap. One only has to wonder the potential finish to the season had they not started with a minus three point penalty.
South Melbourne have struggled in recent weeks taking away just three points in their last four matches. The 4-1 win over Melbourne Victory behind closed doors the only highlight. The 3-1 loss to Avondale at Lakeside on Sunday has all but ruled the out the club recording a triple-Premiership. Mathematically South remain a chance being eight points behind the league leaders. South would need to record wins against Melbourne Knights, Pascoe Vale and Green Gully, and require Heidelberg to defeat Bentleigh and then both to lose their remaining two fixtures.
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NPL Finals Series
The top six on the ladder at the end of the regular season qualify for the finals with the top two teams earning a week off in the first week of the finals and also earn the right to host their Semi-Final in week two.
Week #1 – Elimination Finals
3rd place will host against 6th place
4th place will host 5th place
Week #2 – Semi-Finals
1st place will host the lowest placed qualifier form the Elimination Final
2nd place will host the highest placed qualifier from the Elimination Final.
Week #3 – Grand Final
The two Semi-Final winners will place at a venue determined by the FFV to be crowned the 2016 NPL Champions.
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Top #6 Finals Contenders
The Bentleigh Greens are all but guaranteed a Top two finish, a week off and a home Semi-Final. As mentioned above, this is a significant position to be in with mid-week Dockerty Cup and FFA Cup fixtures ahead.
Heidelberg are in a battle with South Melbourne for second position. They are slightly ahead of their traditional rivals by one point and a goal difference of nine. The value of second place is a week off and a home Semi-Final. Third place retains a home match in the Elimination Final against whomever finishes sixth. Interestingly, if the third placed team wins the Elimination Final they play second in the Semi-Final so there is the potential for an epic traditional Greek Derby at either Lakeside or Olympic Village.
Oakleigh Cannons are in a solid fourth place being three points ahead of Hume City, however behind on goal difference with Hume +14 ahead. They are four points behind South Melbourne and with their current form South could drop more points giving the Cannons a chance at snatching third. South have a healthy +11 goal difference over Oakleigh so that remains a factor as well. The Cannons meet Green Gully, Heidelberg and Northcote in the three remaining fixtures.
Hume City are currently in fifth place and are all but assured a finals berth. They are ahead of Pascoe Vale in seventh by nine points and +26 goals. It’s technically possible for Hume to lose all their remaining game, score no goals, Pascoe Vale win all three and find the net +27 times. If that actually happens, it will be a bigger story for the club than making the finals. If Oakleigh drop points, Hume are a chance at rising to fourth and picking up a home final at ABD Stadium which has been a fortress for them. In the remaining matches, Hume play teams all below them on the ladder; Northcote, Port Melbourne and FC Bulleen Lions.
Green Gully in sixth have a busy schedule ahead featuring in mid-week fixtures against Central Coast Mariners in the FFA Cup and Bentleigh Greens in the Dockerty Cup. Similar to Hume City, they are expecting finals action in 2016 provided they can hold out Pascoe Vale who are seven points behind. They have a tough run home with away matches at Oakleigh and South, whilst playing at home to Melbourne Victory where they should easily record a win and secure the three points they need to guarantee finals football.
Pascoe Vale in seventh are on the brink of finals football but are only a mathematical chance that even goal machine Davey van ‘t Schip can’t deliver. Paco need to win all three of their remaining games against Melbourne Victory, South Melbourne and the Melbourne Knights. Not only that, they require Green Gully to lose all three of their remaining fixtures. Impressive results with wins against Hume City and Oakleigh Cannons in recent weeks have put them into contention however the football gods need to shine very brightly on the boys from CB Smith Reserve to see them in post-season action.
The Melbourne Knights are technically in ninth place equal on points with Avondale in eighth. They do however have game in hand after the FFV postponed their home fixture against Melbourne Victory, allegedly due to security concerns. If it assumed they defeat Victory, they elevate themselves to be equal on 31 points with Pascoe Vale and are a mathematical chance at finals football. The Knights would need to record wins over South Melbourne, Avondale FC and Pascoe Vale in the final rounds to get nine points, but similar to Pascoe Vale, would need Green Gully and Pascoe Vale to lose their other remaining matches.
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Play for pride, finish strong and play the young guns
Avondale FC were on the cusp of a relegation battle however a Jonatan Germano brace delivered a shock victory over South Melbourne at Lakeside last weekend that saw club President Anthony Nuzzaco high fiving the world. The meteoric rise of this small club over the last six years has been astounding. A few weeks ago the club name was linked with a return to the NPL2 however their current position means they are now 1 points clear and guarantees they will not be relegated.
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Relegation Battle – It’s on like Donkey Kong!!
The teams who finish 13th and 14th (bottom two) are automatically relegated to the NPL2. The team finishing in 12th place will be forced into a play-off fixture to remain in the top tier of Victorian football. They will play the winner of a play-off between the teams who finish second in the NPL2 East and NPL2 West.
The Magical Number
At the moment, the magical number to avoid relegation for 2016 is 28 points. Whilst achieving this number will guarantee 11th place and safety in the NPL for 2017, safety is still possible with a lower points tally.
Who’s in the Fight?
Port Melbourne currently sit best placed of the four teams in the relegation battle in 10th place. They are on 22 points and also have the best of the goal differences at -10, only slightly ahead of Bulleen on -11. They require two wins from their remaining fixtures against Richmond, Hume City and Bentleigh to guarantee safety. The key fixture Port need to win is against Richmond and that will all but assure them another year in the NPL.
FC Bulleen Lions are another team promoted to the NPL 2016 who have a good chance at holding their place. Just behind Port in 11th but still on 22 points, they require a win and a draw from three fixtures to guarantee safety. If Port can beat Richmond on Friday, its happy times for the Lions. If not, a win at home the following week against Richmond themselves should be sufficient for Monday night football at the Veneto Club to remain a highlight of the NPL in 2017.
Richmond SC are the movers and shakers at the bottom end of the table right now. They picked up a point against Green Gully and then delivered an amazing 10 minutes or so at the end of Saturday’s fixture to come from 1-0 down to beat Northcote 3-1. It was desperation football at its best and it delivered an intensity on the pitch and a result we avoided almost certain relegation. There is no doubt Richmond are on the back foot but the fixture is someone in their favour playing teams in the bottom half of the ladder. They face Port Melbourne at home, Bulleen away and then Avondale at home to round out the season. Obviously three wins and they remain in the NPL top tier, anything other than that requires a calculator with a large number of permutations to evaluate. The TCF crystal ball estimates one win will avoid automatic relegation whilst two wins means a chance at staying up.
Northcote City had a glimpse at remaining within the NPL up until Richmond discovered the goals at John Cain Memorial Reserve scoring in the 80th, 84th and 89th minute on Saturday afternoon. The result drove a few more nails into the relegation coffin of Northcote that even the wizardry of coach Goran Lozanovski may not be able to overcome. City have a horrendous run home coming up against Hume City, Bentleigh Greens and Oakleigh Cannons to round out their 2016 season. They need to win all three matches and hope for the best with other results to stay up for 2017.
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Relegated – Off to the NPL 2 for you
Melbourne Victory have had a disappointing season in their first foray at the top tier of Victorian football, recording just three wins. Their supporter’s behaviour hasn’t helped with the tribunal finding them guilty of bring the game into disrepute and slapping the team with a 6 point penalty, leaving them on just 4 points in 14th place. This position will see the club relegated to the NPL2, the league where it won promotion from last season defeating North Geelong Warriors in a play-off. Ignoring the points deduction, it would leave the Victory on 10 points with a game in hand against Melbourne Knights. Needing to defeat the Knights and win all three of their remaining fixtures against Pascoe Vale, Green Gully and Heidelberg United, that may not have been enough to keep them in the NPL requiring a lot of other results to go their way.